Knesset Math: 70,000 Returnees and the Tight Margin

The margin between winning and losing a Knesset seat in a close election is smaller than the number of Israelis currently arriving from abroad. An estimated 70,000 citizens residing overseas have returned or are expected to land before Tuesday's election. While this figure is an estimate rather than a precise count, its size is large enough to alter the distribution of 120 seats if the vote is divided narrowly between major blocs.

To understand the potential impact, one must look at the cost of a single seat. In the 2022 election, approximately 36,000 votes were required to secure one Knesset seat. Demographers and election observers expect that threshold to rise this year due to population growth and higher anticipated turnout. Estimates place the cost of a seat this time at between 38,000 and 39,000 votes. This means the total returnee population is roughly equivalent to the value of two to three seats.

However, the political value of those votes depends entirely on where they land. Estimates suggest a majority of returning Israelis may support the change bloc, but no reliable poll exists to confirm the split. Even if 60% of the 70,000 returnees voted for that bloc, the gain would amount to only one to one-and-a-half seats. The final outcome will hinge on whether this bloc can secure enough domestic votes to stay competitive, allowing the returnees to provide a decisive margin.

The influx has created a visible surge in the hospitality sector. Many visitors are combining their civic duty with family reunions and vacations. While a large number stay with relatives or in privately owned apartments, hotel chains report notable increases in bookings. Africa Israel Hotels recorded a 23% rise in occupancy for the week compared to October of last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain's marketing director, attributed the increase to travelers pairing their vote with a short holiday.

Fattal Hotels reported similar trends, with higher occupancy particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, the company's vice president of marketing and sales, noted that bookings for the election week are up compared to the same period last year. The chain is offering discounts of up to 30%, with an additional 10% for loyalty program members, from October 25 to 29. Shalev stated that foreign bookings for these specific dates likely indicate voters traveling home.

The returnees include long-time residents of the diaspora. Judy, who has lived in the United States for more than 50 years, flew in from Miami to vote. She said she would return in early November and noted that while many in her community vote for the right, she is an exception. Ofer, a visitor from New York, said his family flew in specifically for the election and would depart the day after voting.

Younger generations are also participating. Nurit, from the South Sharon area, attended the October Council rally in Tel Aviv with her son-in-law and grandson. Her grandson, an 18-year-old arriving from Canada, is casting his first ballot. Zehava, another returnee from New York, said she planned her trip in advance specifically to vote for Likud.

Not all planned trips materialized. Flydubai canceled flights following an attempted terrorist attack, stranding some voters abroad. One young traveler reported that the cancellations pushed up the price of flights to the Far East. Others who live in Israel but will be abroad on Election Day face the opposite problem. Racheli, from Ramat Gan, booked a trip to Vietnam a year ago before the election date was fixed. She said it would be the first time she could not vote on the day.