19 seats won by Arab-led parties could decide Israel's next prime minister

Voters in Israel have selected a new parliament, but the results leave the question of leadership unresolved. No single leader has the power to form a government alone. The next prime minister will emerge only after intense negotiations among party leaders.

The new Knesset consists of 120 members. A coalition needs 61 seats to hold a majority. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, lack that number. Their parties and allies are locked in a stalemate.

The arithmetic of the election places the Arab-led parties in a powerful position. They won 19 seats, a historic total that gives them the leverage to break ties. Their decision on who to support could determine the direction of the country for the next four years.

The most straightforward path for Eisenkot involves an alliance with these Arab-led parties. Together, they would command 67 seats. This would form a solid majority against Netanyahu. Even if they do not join the cabinet, they could provide the necessary backing for a minority government.

That option carries political risk for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies. Israel’s Arab citizens make up 20% of the population. They are Palestinians whose families remained in Israel after the 1948 war. They maintain close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Many Jewish Israelis view them with suspicion because of these connections.

History offers little comfort for such a partnership. An Arab party joined a governing coalition only once, in 2021. That government lasted about 18 months before collapsing. Netanyahu is already framing any such alliance as a betrayal of Israel’s Jewish identity. He calls it a national security threat. This rhetoric puts pressure on Eisenkot’s right-wing allies to reject the deal.

A different scenario involves a unity government. Netanyahu could try to recruit Eisenkot and his right-leaning allies to join his camp. This arrangement would also yield a 67-seat majority. It would push Arab-led parties, as well as ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions, into the opposition.

Such a government could address issues like military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox. It might also work to stabilize the economy. However, it would require Eisenkot and his allies to break their promises. They vowed not to sit in government with Netanyahu after blaming him for the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7, 2023 attack. They accused him of undermining democratic institutions and cited his ongoing corruption trial.

A government led by Netanyahu is unlikely to approve an official inquiry into the Oct. 7 attack. That inquiry is a central demand of opposition voters. In the past, opposition leaders who defied their voters to join Netanyahu saw their political support drop. Netanyahu would also have to drop far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies who supported him through recent wars and crises.

Netanyahu may look for defectors to bridge the gap. He could target right-wing leaders Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. Both support nationalist policies, such as expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank. They would find it difficult to partner with Arab parties. Yet they have clashed with Netanyahu for years and vowed not to work with him. They also oppose the military exemptions that are a key demand of Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies.

Eisenkot has fewer options for poaching members. Netanyahu's Likud party and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies have shown fierce loyalty to him. If neither side secures a majority, Israel may face new elections early next year. Netanyahu's government would stay in a caretaker role until then.

A second election could hurt Netanyahu's opponents. They had momentum heading into this vote. Tens of thousands of Israelis flew in from abroad to cast ballots. They may not travel a second time. Netanyahu would buy time to strengthen his position. Smaller right-wing parties that failed to enter parliament essentially wasted pro-Netanyahu votes. Those voters might switch to bigger far-right parties next time, strengthening the prime minister. After a similar stalemate in 2019, Israel held five elections in three and a half years.