Israeli President Must Choose Coalition Builder Amid Deadlock

Israeli President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations with newly elected party leaders in the coming days to determine who receives the first opportunity to form a government. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, secured a clear majority in the final results announced Friday. The 120-seat Knesset requires at least 61 lawmakers for a governing majority, leaving both camps short.

Netanyahu’s Likud party won 27 seats, the most of any single party. However, his right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners secured a combined 53 seats. Eisenkot’s center-right bloc won 48 seats. The opposition parties collectively hold more seats than Netanyahu’s bloc, but Eisenkot cannot reach a majority without support from predominantly Arab parties.

The president is not required to invite the leader of the largest party to form a coalition. Instead, he selects the candidate deemed most likely to assemble a governing majority. That candidate receives 28 days to secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers. The president may grant an extension of up to 14 days. If the effort fails, the president can turn to another candidate.

Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the most recommendations from lawmakers. His bloc allied with Arab-led parties won a historic 19 seats. Together, they would command more than 67 seats, a comfortable majority. However, Eisenkot and his allies repeatedly ruled out governing with Arab parties during the campaign. Eisenkot cited differences over the war in Gaza and the military goal of eliminating Hamas as reasons to exclude them.

Netanyahu faces a similar hurdle. His traditional partners do not have enough seats to return him to power alone. One reported possibility is a unity government involving both leaders. Israeli and some U.S. media outlets suggested President Trump favors this outcome, although NPR has not independently confirmed the reports. Such a coalition might include moderate parties from the center and right. It could facilitate cooperation with the Trump administration on regional priorities, including Gaza reconstruction and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.

Eisenkot has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. The two would need to resolve questions regarding who serves as prime minister and whether the role rotates. A second possibility is an Eisenkot government supported from outside by Arab parties. This would contradict campaign promises but would provide a stable parliamentary majority. A third possibility is a repeat election. President Herzog has urged leaders to avoid this path, citing high turnout in the current vote.

Netanyahu may view a second election as favorable if Arab turnout declines or if liberal Israelis who traveled overseas to vote do not return. A fourth possibility involves defections. Netanyahu would need to attract roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc. Eisenkot would need approximately 13 defectors if he continues to exclude Arab parties. This scenario appears unlikely given the current results.

During the stalemate, a parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could advance legislation. Eisenkot’s bloc is considering replacing the Knesset speaker and establishing a state commission of inquiry into the failures preceding the Oct. 7, 2023 attack. Allies may also attempt to reverse legislation they say weakened democratic institutions and judicial independence. These moves would not form a government but would allow opponents to exercise power during negotiations.

A renewed war with Iran could disrupt these plans. Netanyahu said in his election night speech that Israel must complete its mission against Iran. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use security needs for political gain. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst, noted that an emergency would increase pressure on Eisenkot to enter a unity government. Eisenkot previously joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet after the Oct. 7 attack before resigning eight months later. The next step is the president’s selection of a candidate to lead coalition talks.