Roy Cooper favored in NC race as Democrats target Senate gains

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is the clear favorite to win the open Senate seat in a state where Donald Trump won by three points in 2024. Both parties concede that Cooper is likely to be the next senator. Trump said during a campaign stop in the state earlier this month that Cooper is going to become the senator and called the prospect crazy.

The Cook Political Report rates North Carolina as a likely Democratic pickup. That assessment marks a shift from the start of the cycle when the race was seen as a toss-up. The party holds the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. Democrats need to flip a net of four Republican-held seats to take control of the chamber. They currently have a wide field of candidates in competitive districts.

Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas are now classified as toss-ups. These states were won by Trump by double-digit margins in 2024. In Alaska, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola faces a late-stage controversy involving the recruitment of incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, called the situation a desperate conspiracy to defraud voters. Kirsten Gillibrand, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said she is energized by the number of candidates running in deep red and purple places.

Michigan and Ohio are also in the toss-up tier. In Michigan, progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces former Rep. Mike Rogers. Rogers has shifted to a MAGA strategy and has used racist attacks in his campaign. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging incumbent John Husted. Brown lost the seat in 2024 but has high name recognition. Republicans cite the economy, gas prices, and AI data center growth as issues that put them on the defensive in the state.

Maine and South Carolina represent different levels of difficulty for the Democrats. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. Collins won the state in 2020 despite polling losses. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews challenges in a seat left open by the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2024. Republicans hold the edge in South Carolina but Black turnout could shift the result.

Georgia is rated a likely Democratic hold for Sen. Jon Ossoff. The race was viewed as a top Republican target earlier in the year. Ossoff has a large war chest that has made him the heavy favorite. Mississippi and Nebraska are likely Republican holds. In Mississippi, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces a challenge in a state Trump won by 22 points. In Nebraska, incumbent Sen. Dan Ricketts faces independent candidate Dan Osborn. The independent bid indicates the difficult national environment for Republicans.